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SACRAMENTO -- The scouting report of Iowa forward Keegan Murray leading up to the 2022 NBA Draft could be simplified into four words:
“We don’t see it that way,” general manager Monte McNair told reporters Thursday night, hours after the Kings selected the Iowa product No. 4 overall. “We think Keegan has an extremely high ceiling. We think he’s going to come in here and prove that to everyone.”
Following the draft, McNair was bullish on Murray being a best-player-available choice for the Kings at No. 4 over Purdue guard Jaden Ivey, whose athletic upside has drawn comparisons to NBA stars Ja Morant and Donovan Mitchell. Murray was looked at as the safer option of the two and the better fit for the Kings' current roster.
“It’s funny,” general manager Monte McNair said. “I won’t name names because the NBA probably wouldn’t like that. But I’d say go back and look at some guys who people thought had low ceilings. I don’t know how you would say that about a guy who led the country in points scored.”
First, we’ll address the high floor.
It’s true -- Murray led the nation by totaling 822 points in 35 games as a sophomore at Iowa last season. Not only did Murray fill up the box scores, but he also did so efficiently.
Murray topped college basketball in 2021-22 with a 37.8 player efficiency rating (PER), a summary of a player’s positive and negative contributions on the floor on a per-minute basis. Since Sports Reference began tracking the stat in 2009-10, only Duke superstar Zion Williamson has logged a better PER (40.84) than Murray. He also ranked third in the Big Ten in true shooting percentage (63.8) despite also leading the conference in field-goal attempts.
The result? Per Synergy Basketball, Murray’s production on offense was one of the best the sport has seen in recent history.
Keegan Murray had one of the three most efficient offensive seasons for a volume scorer in modern college basketball history as a sophomore at Iowa. pic.twitter.com/BXPxUVwT66
Although he made a monster leap from Year 1 to Year 2 while playing for coach Fran McCaffery at Iowa, most notably in scoring (7.2 points per game to 23.5) and 3-point shooting (29.6 percent to 39.8 percent), Murray showed signs of his elite offensive efficiency even while coming off the bench in a miniscule role as a freshman.
In 18 minutes per game, Murray posted 7.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. His efforts added up to a respectable 122.1 offensive rating and 23.4 PER. The Kings took notice, even then.
“Keegan is somebody that was on our radar last year, even though he had a smaller role,” McNair said. “The things he does on the court show up even in smaller samples. The fact that he took it to the heights he did this year is certainly a testament to him and the program. It’s also things that we saw the beginnings of last year. That just gives you more confidence that this guy was able to impact it in a smaller role of the bench and then come in and be the go-to star they needed this year when he was given a bigger role.
“The fact that he continues to grow like that is another positive as we look into his future.”
Take a look at the newest member of the Sacramento Kings ð pic.twitter.com/mLWe74TpXM
Murray’s skill set is also viewed as NBA ready. He can finish at the rim and knock down catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. He can run the floor in transition with ease and find open teammates with the basketball. Murray also plays smart defense, stepping in passing lanes to cause turnovers and denying opponents with punishing blocks.
“Obviously, Keegan extremely well-rounded player, two-way player, one of the most prolific scorers in the country,” McNair said. “Blocks, steals, rebounds, impacts the game in so many ways. We talk about versatility -- somebody who can play inside and out on offense, somebody who can guard multiple positions on the defensive end.”
There’s the high floor. Choosing Murray doesn’t come with many risks of drafting a complete bust. But about that low ceiling …
All three players drafted ahead of Murray -- Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr. -- as well as Ivey, taken one spot after, have at least one unique feature that, if all goes well, can propel them into All-Star status.
For Banchero, he's a mismatch for basically any defender with his 6-foot-10 frame and elite scoring ability. Take one look at Holmgren and it’s easy to decipher what he could look like as an All-Star, the NBA's newest 7-foot unicorn who can handle the basketball like a guard while also doubling as a rim protector, blocking nearly four shots per game in college. Smith is just 19 years old and, standing 6-10, already has a lethal shot from anywhere on the floor. Ivey is perhaps the quickest and most athletic member of the 2022 draft class and can finish above the rim with highlight-reel dunks. He'll be a problem for opponents in transition.
Murray, meanwhile, excels at just about everything mentioned above. He just might not be the best at any of it.
"He is very smooth with his game," McNair said. "Maybe that lulls people to sleep. But a guy who dunks the ball, runs in transition, rebounds the ball, block, steal -- all these things indicate a dynamic player with athleticism, skill.
"I don’t know exactly why people see [the low ceiling for Murray]. Maybe those are some of the reasons. But we feel confident in not just his production but his dynamism."